Speaking on “Fox & Friends Weekend“ on Dec. 7, Johnson described the momentum behind Hegseth’s bid as ”moving the right way” and defended his qualifications and character amid ongoing controversy. He emphasized Hegseth’s military background and readiness to lead the Pentagon, despite allegations of past misconduct that have raised questions about the likelihood of Senate confirmation.

“I’m optimistic about it,“ Johnson said. ”I’ve talked to a number of senators personally on the Hill just over the last couple of days and it seems like the momentum’s moving the right way.”

Johnson added: “We’ve all made mistakes in our lives, but we believe in redemption.”

Hegseth, a former Army officer and Fox News host, has faced allegations including sexual misconduct and excessive drinking, although no charges were ever filed. This past week, The New Yorker published additional claims from a whistleblower report and other documents detailing alleged incidents of intoxication at work events, inappropriate conduct toward female staffers, and financial mismanagement during Hegseth’s tenure at Concerned Veterans for America. The allegations have drawn criticism, raising questions about whether Hegseth’s confirmation in the Senate will succeed.

A number of Fox News personalities, interviewees, and other staffers have taken to social media to defend the Fox News host from some of the reported claims.

Key Senate Republicans have signaled cautious support while calling for a thorough vetting process. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, met with Hegseth and emphasized the importance of evaluating his record. “We just need to make sure that he is thoroughly vetted and that he has his opportunity to go in front of the committee, recount his service, and rebut any allegations,” Ernst said.

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who previously expressed reservations, voiced optimism after meeting with Hegseth this week. “I see no reason at this point not to be supportive,” Cramer said, praising Hegseth’s readiness for the job. Similarly, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) called the allegations “disturbing” but stressed that anonymous reports should not dictate decisions.

“If you’re not willing to raise your hand and make the accusation, it doesn’t count,” Graham said.

Trump has maintained unwavering support for Hegseth, dismissing negative coverage as “fake news.” In a Truth Social post on Friday, Trump described Hegseth as a “fantastic, high-energy“ pick for the role of secretary of defense who would lead ”with charisma and skill.” The president-elect praised Hegseth’s military mindset and academic credentials, and called him a “WINNER.”

Despite the show of support, there has been media speculation that Trump’s transition team is considering alternatives, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, should Hegseth’s confirmation falter. Hegseth has dismissed such speculation and framed the scrutiny as a smear campaign aimed at derailing his nomination.

“I’m doing this for the warfighters, not the warmongers,” Hegseth posted on X. “The Left is afraid of disrupters and change agents. They are afraid of [Trump] and me.”

With Republicans holding a narrow 53–47 majority in the Senate starting in January 2025, any defections could derail Hegseth’s nomination. Trump’s potential Cabinet has faced one setback, with former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), the initial nominee for attorney general, withdrawing after concerns were raised by Senate Republicans. Trump’s selection to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration also dropped out of contention.

Senate hearings for Trump’s nominees, including Hegseth, are expected to begin shortly after the president-elect’s inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025.

The group’s consumer confidence index rose to 111.7 in November, up from 109.6 in October, marking the second consecutive month of improvement, according to the Nov. 26 report.

The present situation index, which gauges consumers’ views of current business and labor market conditions, climbed 4.8 points to 140.9. Meanwhile, the expectations index, which reflects outlooks over the next six months on income, business, and labor conditions, inched up 0.4 points to 92.3, remaining well above the threshold of 80 that is typically associated with recession risks.

“The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months fell further in November and was the lowest since we first asked the question in July 2022,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in a statement.

Peterson said that November’s increase in overall consumer confidence was mostly due to more positive assessments of current conditions, particularly with respect to the labor market.

“Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years,” Peterson said.

Even though consumers’ assessments of their family’s current financial situation fell slightly, optimism for their finances over the next six months reached a new high. Confidence in the U.S. stock market also reached a record high, with 56.4 percent of respondents expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months.

Inflation expectations also fell sharply. The average 12-month inflation expectations fell from 5.3 percent in October to 4.9 percent in November, the lowest in nearly four-and-a-half years. Still, elevated prices remained the top concern for consumers, followed by worries about higher taxes, social unrest, as well as conflicts and wars.

“In a special question about concerns and hopes for 2025, consumers overwhelmingly selected higher prices as their top concern and lower prices as their top wish for the new year,” the report states.

Despite the rise in optimism, consumers reported mixed plans for future purchases. Buying intentions for homes stalling in November, while plans to purchase autos ticked up. Durable goods purchases faced uncertainty, with declines in plans for appliances and electronics, offset by steady interest in travel and healthcare spending.

Other data released on Tuesday suggests Americans are tightening their purse strings. Best Buy, the nation’s biggest consumer electronics chain, reported another quarterly sales drop as customers pivoted toward essentials, away from gadgets and appliances. The retailer also lowered its annual sales and profit outlook, with CEO Corie Barry noting weak customer demand ahead of the November election and shoppers who were waiting for bargains.

“We continue to see a consumer who is seeking value and sales events, and one who is also willing to spend on high price-point products when they need to or when there is new, compelling technology,“ Barry said in a statement. ”Thus, we are balancing our optimism in both the industry and our unique positioning with a pragmatic approach to likely uneven customer behavior going forward.”

Similarly, Kohl’s reported disappointing third-quarter results and lowered its full-year sales outlook. The retailer now expects comparable sales to decline 6 percent to 7 percent for the year, a deeper slump than the 3 percent to 5 percent it previously projected.

“Our third quarter results did not meet our expectations as sales remained soft in our apparel and footwear businesses,“ CEO Tom Kingsbury said in a statement. ”We are approaching our financial outlook for the year more conservatively given the third quarter underperformance and our expectation for a highly competitive holiday season.”

Target also reported weak sales and slumping profits as customers pulled back on non-essential purchases. CEO Brian Cornell said the company “encountered some unique challenges and cost pressures that impacted our bottom-line performance” in the third quarter, although he expressed confidence in Target’s business fundamentals and its ability to deliver on longer-term financial goals.

The picture wasn’t universally grim among the nation’s retailers during this reporting season, however. Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, last week reported a solid third quarter and raised its full-year net sales growth guidance to between 4.8 and 5.1 percent.

“We had a strong quarter, continuing our momentum,” CEO Doug McMillon said in a statement. “In-store volumes grow, pickup from store grew faster, and delivery from store grew even faster than that.”

Alongside the rise in consumer confidence, as reported by The Conference Board, there was also an uptick in sentiment among professional economic forecasters this week. The latest National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey showed that economists have raised their growth projections substantially for 2025 and most of them no longer see downside risks as predominant.
NABE’s periodic survey, released on Nov. 25 and based on the responses of 38 professional forecasters, found improved economic growth projections for both this year and the next, while expecting inflation to cool further.

The periodic survey, released on Nov. 25, reveals an upward revision in economic growth projections for both this year and the next, compared to the last time the panel of 38 professional economic forecasters was polled in September. Specifically, the current forecast calls for real inflation-adjusted gross domestic product to increase by 2.7 percent in 2024, up from the 2.6 percent the panelists expected several months ago. The economists’ prediction for 2025 is even more optimistic, forecasting a 2.0 percent pace of growth, up 0.2 percentage points from the 1.8 percent growth they expected a few months before the November election.

“In addition, the largest share of respondents—44 percent—now sees the risks surrounding the outlook as balanced, whereas a majority of respondents in the previous survey thought downside risks were more likely than balanced or upside risks,” NABE president Emily Kolinski Morris said in a statement.

Most of the panelists also expect inflation to cool further, predicting that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will slow to 2.3 percent in annual terms by the end of 2025, and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, will come in at 2.1 percent by that time. Slowing inflation means more room for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which the panelists expect will take place “gradually but consistently.”

Fed policymakers focus more on core PCE, which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, when assessing inflation trends as this gauge provides a more stable measure of underlying inflation pressures.

This week will see the release of PCE inflation data for October, with the latest report for September showing that core PCE remained unchanged from August at 2.7 percent year over year, although it jumped by 0.3 percent month over month, up from August’s 0.1 percent increase.

While the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s inflation nowcasting model indicates a near-term increase in core PCE inflation, it hints at a gradual decline later, aligning with the Federal Reserve’s latest Summary of Economic Projections, which foresees a downward trajectory for core PCE in both 2024 and 2025.

The Cleveland Fed’s inflation model, updated on Nov. 25, estimates that core PCE inflation rose to 2.76 percent in October and will have risen to 2.90 percent by the end of November. At the same time, the nowcast sees the core PCE month-over-month readings declining from 0.24 percent in October to 0.23 percent in November, suggesting the onset of a potential downward trend, which would be consistent with the view of the NABE economists and Fed officials.

In their latest Summary of Economic Projections, released in September, Fed policymakers expected core PCE to fall to 2.6 percent by the end of 2024, a drop from the 2.8 percent they projected in June. They also lowered their projections for core PCE in 2025, expecting it to come in at 2.2 percent, lower than the 2.3 percent they forecast during the summer and 0.1 percentage point higher than the NABE panel’s prediction for next year.

The increase in optimism about the future of the U.S. economy expressed by NABE forecasters dovetails with a jump in positive sentiment expressed by consumers and members of the business community alike.

The latest S&P Global Flash PMI survey of the manufacturing and service industries, released on Nov. 22, showed a broad-based improvement in year-ahead business confidence, which was particularly notable in U.S. factories, where it hit a 31-month high.

“The business mood has brightened in November, with confidence about the year ahead hitting a two-and-a-half year high,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement. “The prospect of lower interest rates and a more pro-business approach from the incoming administration has fueled greater optimism, in turn helping drive output and order book inflows higher in November.”

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, released on Nov. 22, showed an uptick in consumer confidence, while year-ahead inflation expectations eased.

Apple’s security updates patch gaps in operating systems for the iPhone, iPad, and Mac products, as well as its Safari web browser, according to a series of security-related announcements on Nov. 19.

Specifically, the software updates target iOS 17.7.2 and iPadOS 17.7.2, iOS 18.1.1 and iPadOS 18.1.1, visionOS 2.1.1, macOS Sequoia 15.1.1, Safari 18.1, and Safari 18.1.1.

Apple noted that in all the above-listed cases, the patches fix two significant vulnerabilities in WebKit and JavaScriptCore. These vulnerabilities, which could lead to arbitrary code-execution attacks through malicious web content, may have been exploited by hackers.

“Apple is aware of a report that this issue may have been actively exploited on Intel-based Macs,” the company wrote in several of the security alerts.

No information was available as to the possible identity of any cyber-threat actors who may have exploited these vulnerabilities. In general, if hackers are able to execute arbitrary code through maliciously crafted web content, this could put sensitive user data at risk, potentially leading to unauthorized access, stolen credentials, or even device control.

The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) also took note of the security gaps in the listed Apple products.

Similarly, iOS 17.7.2 and iPadOS 17.7.2 extend coverage to slightly older devices like the iPad Pro 10.5-inch and the iPad 6th generation.

Mac users running macOS Sequoia 15.1.1 or Safari on macOS Ventura and macOS Sonoma are also affected, as are early adopters of visionOS 2.1.1 on the Apple Vision Pro.

The massive debt milestone was reached just over three months after the previous $35 trillion benchmark, highlighting the rapid accumulation of federal borrowing in recent years. It comes as policymakers brace for renewed debates over spending and taxation, with the incoming Trump administration and the 119th Congress having to contend with the nation’s fiscal trajectory.

“As if lawmakers needed any other reasons to take America’s fiscal health seriously, the gross national debt of the United States has now officially reached $36 trillion,” Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), said in a statement. “Government borrowing is becoming as certain as the changing of the seasons these days.”

MacGuineas highlighted the risks of rising debt, including slower economic growth, higher inflation, and increased interest rates. She warned that high debt loads constrain fiscal flexibility, hampering the government’s ability to respond to economic downturns or global crises, pointing to $13 trillion in projected interest payments over the next decade as a stark example.

“The incoming Trump Administration and Members of the 119th Congress face several fiscal hurdles from the moment they take office–starting with the reinstatement of the debt ceiling in January and a $1.7 trillion PAYGO scorecard waiting to greet them,” MacGuineas said. “The way they approach that and other crucial decisions ahead like the expiration of discretionary spending caps and the 2017 tax cuts, as well as how they choose to offset the costs of their new policies, will determine our fiscal health for a long time.”

Meanwhile, respondents to a New York Federal Reserve survey that was cited in the Fed’s newly released semi-annual Financial Stability Report identified U.S. fiscal debt sustainability as the most frequently cited near-term risk to financial stability, overtaking concerns about persistent inflation and monetary tightening.

“Concerns surrounding US fiscal debt sustainability were atop the list this survey, followed by escalating tensions in the Middle East and policy uncertainty,” the report’s authors wrote. Fears of a potential U.S. recession and a global trade war also moved up in importance in the latest survey compared to the one carried out in spring.

In the Fed’s discussion of the near-term risks identified in the survey, which was conducted among some two dozen financial sector participants and observers from August to October, the central bank noted that rising geopolitical tensions and potential economic slowdowns could amplify vulnerabilities tied to the nation’s fiscal challenges and lead to “broad adverse spillovers.”

Escalation in conflicts such as the Middle East crisis or the war in Ukraine could disrupt global energy and commodity markets, triggering inflationary pressures and heightened market volatility. The Fed also warned of the potential for a sharp downturn in economic growth, which could lead to steep corrections in asset prices, particularly in overvalued sectors like equities and real estate.

High levels of corporate and nonbank financial institution leverage could exacerbate financial stress, while elevated public debt might limit the government’s ability to respond effectively to such shocks, the report’s authors noted. Further, the report underscored the growing risk of cyberattacks, which could disrupt the financial system by exploiting interdependencies among institutions and components of market infrastructure.

The Fed’s own financial stability assessment focused on a framework of risks across four key areas: asset valuations, borrowing by households and businesses, leverage in the financial sector, and funding risks.

The report noted that asset values “remained elevated,” with liquidity in financial markets remaining low, raising the risk of strain during periods of volatility. Vulnerabilities from business and household debt were described as “moderate,” though delinquencies in auto and credit card loans were elevated.

The banking system was described in the financial stability report as “sound and resilient,” though banks’ market-adjusted capital levels improved only “modestly” and so remain sensitive to interest rate changes. Hedge fund leverage was at its highest level in over a decade, while vulnerabilities in some short-term investment vehicles continued to grow.

Speaking at the APEC CEO Summit in Lima, Peru, on Nov. 14, Dimon criticized the regulatory environment for hindering lending, highlighting stringent capital requirements introduced after the financial crisis of 2008–09 that have forced banks to reduce their loan-to-deposit ratios.

“A lot of bankers, they’re, like, dancing in the street because they’ve had successive years and years of regulations, a lot of which stymied credit,” the JPMorgan chief said, according to a Bloomberg video of his remarks at the summit. “You could have kept the banks equally safe but had them do more credit.”

He noted that banks now lend only $65 for every $100 in deposits, compared to $100 previously, which he said stifles economic growth.

Dimon suggested that these regulations, while well-intentioned, have become a headwind for the economy.

“And if that’s what you want, if for some reason the regulators think they’re geniuses and that’s the best way to run the banking system, so be it,” Dimon said, adding that he believes it is possible to maintain financial stability without hindering lending.

Deregulation, he said, could benefit industries beyond banking. Dimon pointed to the slow permitting process for rare-earth mining in the United States as another example of regulatory inefficiency hampering economic growth.

“Ten years—they haven’t got their permits yet,” he said of companies seeking to extract critical minerals crucial for technology and defense industries. “It’s a shame. And we’re doing this to ourselves, and it’s a mistake.”

Dimon also praised President-elect Donald Trump’s proposal for a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which aims to streamline bureaucracy.

“You could talk to any industry and they’ll give you examples of regulation that could be reduced to make it easier for them to do business while keeping the country safe,” he said.

When asked about the market’s strong reaction to Trump’s election victory, Dimon said it reflects optimism for a “pro-growth shock” as businesses prepare to make aggressive capital investments.

“You’ve already seen the markets have responded quite well,” he noted. “And I think America needs a growth strategy, so I literally applaud that,” he said.

Dimon emphasized that the agenda should go beyond slashing red tape to include broader reforms like improving the efficiency of the permitting process. “Collaboration between government and business is the way to have growth,” he said.

While the Trump administration appears poised to pursue a deregulatory agenda, the administration of President Joe Biden has emphasized consumer protections and systemic risk management.

Under the Biden administration, for example, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has seen a significant restoration of its authority, reversing the more hands-off approach taken during Trump’s first term. Since 2021, the CFPB has ramped up its oversight, launching investigations and enforcement actions against financial institutions accused of engaging in predatory lending, discriminatory practices, or misleading marketing. It has also cracked down on banks for practices such as “junk fees,” unauthorized account openings, and withholding of credit card rewards.

Also, during Biden’s term, U.S. banking regulators have focused more heavily on addressing systemic risks in the financial system, with a particular emphasis on implementing the final phase of Basel III reforms, often referred to as the “Basel III endgame.”

These reforms, developed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, aim to bolster the resilience of the banking sector by increasing capital requirements, enhancing risk-weighting measures, and introducing stricter leverage ratios.

Critics, including Dimon, have said that the stricter rules would not have prevented past bank failures and could have a negative impact on the economy.

The foreign influence campaigns, which include the use of artificial intelligence (AI) to generate divisive content, are expected to intensify as Election Day nears—and persist after polls close through Inauguration Day in January, according to an Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) security update and a National Intelligence Council declassified memo, both announced on Oct. 22.

“Foreign actors—particularly Russia, Iran, and China—remain intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans and undermine Americans’ confidence in the U.S. democratic system consistent with what they perceive to be in their interests, even as their tactics continue to evolve,” reads the security update.

Social media posts, some of which are likely to be enhanced or entirely generated by AI, were identified as the most common type of election-related influence operation by foreign adversaries.

As an example, the ODNI pointed to Russian influence actors manufacturing and amplifying inauthentic content claiming that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, was engaged in illegal activity during his earlier career. While the report did not go into specifics, it could relate to claims circulating on social media that Walz sexually assaulted a student while he was a high school teacher.

“Breaking: Tim Walz’s former student, Matthew Metro, drops a shocking allegation-claims Walz s*xually assaulted him in 1997 while Walz was his teacher at Mankato West High School. Metro was a senior at the time. If this is true, it’s a political earthquake,” reads an Oct. 16 post on X, which shared a since-deleted video of a man making the sexual assault allegations. The real Matthew Metro told The Washington Post that the speaker in the video was not him and that no such interaction with Walz had taken place. Further, the man’s brother, Micheal Metro, told AFP that the circulating video was “definitely not him.”

Darren Linvill, co-director at Clemson University’s media forensics hub, told WIRED that the video appeared to be a deepfake bearing the hallmarks of Storm-1516, a group that Microsoft described as a “Kremlin-aligned troll farm” that has put out various deepfakes, including one about Vice President Kamala Harris’s supposed involvement in a hit-and-run accident.

Microsoft’s threat assessment team issued an Oct. 23 report that dovetails with the ODNI update but provides more details about disinformation campaigns from China, Iran, and Russia, including an AI-enhanced deepfake video linked to Storm-1516 that accuses Harris of illegal poaching in Africa.

Despite the heightened influence efforts, the ODNI security update stressed that there is no evidence that foreign actors have attempted to interfere with vote tabulation or election administration processes.

“Even if they decided to try, foreign actors almost certainly would not be able to manipulate election processes at a scale that would materially impact the outcome of the Presidential election without detection,” states the security update.

This message is consistent with earlier remarks made by Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), who said at the beginning of October that U.S. election systems are so secure that foreign adversaries won’t be able to manipulate the outcome of the 2024 presidential election in a “material” way.

Further, the intelligence community assessed that foreign actors will at minimum conduct information operations after Election Day through Inauguration Day, according to both the ODNI security update and the National Intelligence Council declassified memo.

“They might also consider stoking unrest and conducting localized cyber operations to disrupt election infrastructure,” the memo states. “However, we judge that operations that could affect voting or official counts are less likely because they are more difficult and bring a greater risk of US retaliation.”

Foreign adversaries, which the memo says are “better prepared” than in previous election cycles to undertake influence operations after Election Day, are expected to “almost certainly” conduct such operations after polls close.

Their overarching aim is to sow doubt about the integrity of the November election, and create confusion and friction more generally around democratic processes in the United States. Other aims include acquiring voter registration data and nonpublic information on local election officials, which they could exploit in future cyber or influence operations.

“US adversaries’ longstanding interest in undermining American democracy suggests it will be difficult to dissuade them from engaging during the post-election period,” the memo reads.

The warnings contained in the ODNI security update and National Intelligence Council memo echo those made by the FBI and CISA on Oct. 18, which raised the alarm on AI-assisted influence operations targeting U.S. elections.

The Fed’s Beige Book, released on Oct. 18, revealed a broad contraction in manufacturing across the United States, reflecting weaker demand and sluggish production.

Most of the Fed’s 12 districts reported declining manufacturing activity, exacerbated by difficulties in finding qualified workers and, in some cases, persistently weak sales.

The Fed’s data on the manufacturing slump was echoed by the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) report, released on Oct. 21, which recorded a 0.5 percent drop in September—an acceleration from August’s 0.3 percent decline. A significant factor in September’s decline was a sharp decrease in new factory orders, contributing to a 2.6 percent decrease in the index over the past six months.

The LEI, which is designed to forecast economic turning points, points to weak economic growth heading into 2025.

“Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, a senior manager at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “Overall, the LEI continued to signal uncertainty for economic activity ahead and is consistent with The Conference Board expectation for moderate growth at the close of 2024 and into early 2025.”

The persistent downturn in U.S. manufacturing has become a focal point in the 2024 presidential race.

Meanwhile, economic sentiment has taken a downward turn recently.

Even though inflation has eased since the June 2022 recent peak of 9 percent, the Fed’s Beige Book indicates that many districts reported increasing price sensitivity among inflation-weary consumers. Input costs rose faster than selling prices in September, compressing profit margins and further pressuring U.S. businesses, including manufacturers.

Data from the Federal Reserve, released on Oct. 17, showed a 0.3 percent decline in industrial output, following a downwardly revised 0.3 percent gain in August. Analysts had predicted a smaller drop of 0.2 percent for the month.

According to the Fed, the larger-than-expected decline was due in part to disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, along with the ongoing Boeing machinists’ strike. The aerospace sector, in particular, took a significant hit, with production of aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment falling by 8.3 percent, dragging down the overall index.

The broader picture also looks bleak, with industrial output for the third quarter down 0.6 percent. This aligns with other recent indicators pointing to ongoing challenges in the U.S. manufacturing sector.

The latest S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, a key survey-based measure, showed the sharpest contraction in factory activity in over a year for September. Factory output and new orders dropped sharply, driven by weakened demand.

“The September PMI survey brings a whole slew of disappointing economic indicators regarding the health of the U.S. economy,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement. “Factories reported the largest monthly drop in production in 15 months in response to a slump in new orders, in turn driving further reductions in employment and input buying as producers scaled back operating capacity.”

The deepening decline in U.S. manufacturing, highlighted by the S&P Global report, was reinforced by the Fed’s latest industrial production data. It showed a 0.4 percent month-over-month fall in manufacturing output for September and a 0.5 percent drop compared with the previous year.

Similarly, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a contraction in U.S. manufacturing for September, marking the sixth straight monthly decline and the 22nd contraction in the past 23 months. Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM’s Manufacturing Business Committee, noted that demand remains sluggish, with companies hesitant to invest in capital and inventory.

The ongoing slump in U.S. manufacturing has become a key issue on the presidential campaign trail, with both major candidates offering plans to revive the sector.

Speaking in Michigan in late September, former President Donald Trump vowed to “reclaim America’s manufacturing power,” promising tariffs on foreign imports and pledging to provide domestic manufacturers with lower energy costs, taxes, and regulatory burdens.

The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor report, released on Oct. 15, projects that global public debt will exceed $100 trillion—equal to about 93 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP)—in 2024, and that it could approach 100 percent of GDP by the end of the decade. The United States, in particular, faces significant risks if fiscal policies are not adjusted urgently.

The report emphasizes that countries, including the United States, need to address debt risks with carefully crafted fiscal strategies. It warns that debt levels could be worse than anticipated because of large spending pressures, sizeable unidentified debt, and overly optimistic debt projections.

Unidentified debt, which refers to liabilities that do not appear explicitly in budget documents—such as contingent liabilities, losses at federally owned enterprises such as the U.S. Postal Service, and other off-balance-sheet obligations—poses a significant risk to debt sustainability, according to the IMF.

“There are good reasons to believe that future debt levels could be higher than currently projected,” the report’s executive summary states, highlighting that actual debt-to-GDP ratios three years ahead tend to be about 6 percentage points higher than originally forecasted, on average.

The IMF attributes the potential underestimation of debt levels to several factors, including a political climate increasingly favoring higher government spending. This spending is being driven by concerns around security, an aging population, and the push to invest in green transitions.

“Rebuilding fiscal buffers in a growth-friendly manner and containing debt is essential to ensure sustainable public finances and financial stability,” the report urges.

In a related blog post titled “Global Public Debt Is Probably Worse Than It Looks,” IMF economists assert that current efforts to curb debt growth are insufficient. Delays in fiscal actions, they argue, will lead to even higher costs and greater risks.

“Experience shows that high debt and lack of credible fiscal plans can trigger adverse market reaction, constraining room to maneuver in the face of turbulence,” the economists wrote, emphasizing the need for proactive measures such as paring back spending.

The IMF’s analysis shows that planned fiscal adjustments—such as reducing spending by 1 percent of GDP over six years—are insufficient to stabilize debt. Instead, a cumulative tightening of 3.8 percent of GDP is needed to significantly cut debt levels, the economists contend, with the effort required in the United States being “substantially greater.”

Without substantial fiscal adjustments, U.S. debt will continue on an unsustainable path, the report warns. The country faces mounting spending demands, largely because of health care costs, an aging population, and defense needs, all of which are exacerbated by growing geopolitical tensions.

The IMF identifies the reform of mandatory spending programs, such as Social Security and Medicare, as a crucial step. These programs account for a large and inflexible share of the U.S. budget, and reforming them could help rein in expenditures. Besides spending cuts, the IMF suggests that the United States could raise revenues by raising taxes or removing tax exemptions.

The IMF’s newly developed “debt-at-risk” framework—a tool used to estimate potential debt outcomes under different economic conditions—indicates that U.S. public debt could rise sharply under adverse scenarios.

Stronger fiscal governance is also essential, according to the IMF, which describes it as “key to mitigating the buildup of unidentified debt and containing debt vulnerabilities.” Countries with better fiscal governance—marked by budget transparency and adherence to fiscal rules—tend to have lower levels of unidentified debt, even during times of financial stress.