The longest shutdown was 34 days during the Trump administration between December 2018 and January 2019.

The possibility of a shutdown comes after President-elect Donald Trump chimed in on a bipartisan bill to fund the government through March 14 that included other legislation such as a one-year extension of the farm bill, disaster relief, and transferring control of RFK Memorial Stadium from the federal government to the District of Columbia.

House Republicans scrapped several provisions from that plan and released a new bill on the evening of Dec. 19 that would have suspended the debt ceiling until the end of January 2027.

“Increasing the debt ceiling is not great but we’d rather do it on Biden’s watch,” Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance wrote in a Dec. 18 joint statement posted to Truth Social. “Let’s have this debate now. And we should pass a streamlined spending bill.”

This bill, known as a continuing resolution, would have funded the government at current levels. However, it was rejected in a 235–174 vote.

Here is what would happen were there to be a government shutdown.

Essential Workers and Functions Continue

Just because the government shuts down, that doesn’t mean everyone is furloughed.

After all, the government still needs to perform its basic duties, such as protecting the homeland. Agencies that have many essential employees include the Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, and the FBI.

Essential employees also include Border Patrol agents, TSA agents, and FAA personnel. However, agencies warned of longer wait times, so people planning on taking a plane to visit friends and family might want to leave earlier than scheduled.

Each agency determines who would perform what the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) calls “excepted work.” Presidential appointees are not classified as such.

There are also “emergency employees,” who are not necessarily essential workers, but must report for duty in the event of natural disasters, power failures, “and other situations in which significant numbers of employees are prevented from reporting for work or which require agencies to close all or part of their activities,” according to the Office of Personnel Management.

Employees who work during a shutdown do not receive pay during that period.

Medicare and Social Security Checks Still Go Out

Those who rely on Medicare and Social Security would not have to worry about those services being put on hold in the event of a shutdown as those items are classified under non-discretional spending.

However, processing times can be affected by a shutdown.

The Social Security Administration will not process certain items such as overpayments.

National Parks and Smithsonian Museums Closed

Want to see the latest exhibit at one of the 21 Smithsonian Museums in the nation’s capital? You’re out of luck, as those museums, which have no admission cost, would be required to temporarily close in the event of a shutdown.

This includes the National Zoo, though, don’t worry, the animals will still be taken care of.

How about seeing the sunset at the Grand Canyon? Forget about it as most national parks are also closed during a shutdown.

Finally, if you want to see a Raphael or a da Vinci at the National Gallery of Art, you will have to wait until the shutdown is resolved.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

The study, published in Gut on Tuesday, found that chronic inflammation in colorectal cancer (CRC) stems from an abundance of pro-inflammatory omega-6 fats in tumors and insufficient omega-3 fats to neutralize the inflammation. This imbalance hinders the body’s ability to heal and promotes cancer growth.

Both the pro-inflammatory omega-6 and anti-inflammatory omega-3 fats must be obtained through diet, with omega-6 fats being highly prevalent in ultra-processed foods.

“Our presumption—an association, not a cause at this point in time—is that omega-6-rich diets create more pro-inflammatory building blocks, which enzymes in tumors and the body turn into pro-inflammatory fats,” Dr. Timothy Yeatman, professor of surgery at the University of South Florida (USF) Health Morsani College of Medicine, associate center director for Translational Research and Innovation at the Tampa General Hospital (TGH) Cancer Institute, and a corresponding author of the study, told The Epoch Times.

Diet Shapes Cancer Risk

For the study, scientists from the USF and TGH Cancer Institute examined the role of fats and the genes involved in fat metabolism in CRC. They studied 81 pairs of CRC tumor tissue and healthy tissue, focusing on how the body creates and breaks down fats, which can influence inflammation and cancer growth.

The researchers found that high levels of pro-inflammatory omega-6 fats like linolenic acids (LA) and arachidonic acids (AA) drove the cancer.

The findings indicate that diets high in omega-6 fatty acids may contribute to inflammation that facilitates cancer growth.

The Role of Omega-6 Fatty Acids

Excessive intake of omega-6 fatty acids like LAs found in ultra-processed foods and seed oils results in an overproduction of AA in the body. AA is a precursor that gives rise to more pro-inflammatory molecules that can exacerbate inflammation and promote tumor growth.

The body breaks down these omega-6 fatty acids into inflammatory molecules called leukotrienes, Yeatman said, “and that’s what we found in the tumors.”

Leukotrienes activate immune cells, amplify inflammation, and damage tissues, creating an environment conducive to tumor growth in CRC patients.

Ultra-processed foods include meat products such as sausages, hotdogs, chips, sweetened and alcoholic drinks, mass-produced bread, condiments, and ice cream.

Inflammation: A Strong Link to Diet

In healthy tissues, the body transitions from inflammation to healing through a process called lipid class switching, where pro-inflammatory molecules shift to anti-inflammatory fats like prostaglandins, which signal tissue repair.

Inadequate or ineffective levels of prostaglandin leads to defective class switching, resulting in unresolved inflammation. Prostaglandin also prevents the body from turning omega-6 fatty acids into inflammatory leukotrienes.

The research team observed that CRC tumors produce excessive pro-inflammatory molecules while exhibiting 70 percent lower levels of prostaglandins, essential for resolving inflammation. This deficiency disrupts the lipid class-switching process, perpetuating an environment that promotes tumor growth and survival.

Chronic inflammation fosters a microenvironment conducive to immunosuppression, allowing genetic mutations to persist and ultimately manifest as cancer, Yeatman said.

“We found that over the decades, starting around the 50s, the levels of omega-6 in our body fat have increased dramatically,” he added. “So what’s changed in our diet since then? It’s largely the rise of ultra-processed foods and big agriculture, driven by making food production much cheaper. As a result, less expensive seed oils are used as opposed to more pro-resolving oils, like olive and avocado oils.”

Problematic Immune Cells

Specialized white blood cells, which promoted inflammation in the tumors studied, were also key contributors to CRC. These immune cells initially get drawn to the tumor site to kill the cancer but instead become transformed to facilitate tumor growth.

Yeatman said that this behavior has been observed in other cancers.

“The same processes are likely involved in heart disease, in diabetes, in Alzheimer’s disease,” he added.

What Can Be Done?

Yeatman said we should be mindful of our diets and look at ingredient labels.

“These results (study findings) underscore the need for additional studies that explore what specifically in our diet drives a person’s risk of tumor formation,” Dr. Raaj Mehta, instructor in medicine at Harvard Medical School, attending physician at Massachusetts General Hospital, and not part of the study, told The Epoch Times. “Prevention is essential. We need better ways to counsel our patients about what not to eat and why.

“Hundreds of studies have shown a connection between what we eat and our risk for colorectal cancer. We think this may be mediated by the trillions of bacteria in our digestive tract.”

While little is known about how preservatives and artificial sweeteners affect the microbiome, Yeatman said the microbiome is a critical component in cancer development because it’s the microbiome that processes fats and turns them into different compounds.

“We are supersaturated with arachidonic acid, which is omega-6,” he said. As omega-6 is an essential fatty acid, Yeatman emphasized that he is not saying it’s a bad oil but that too much of anything is bad. “So you should be eating a balanced one-to-one ratio.”

The findings of this study also introduce the concept of resolution medicine, a natural approach to treating inflammation. “It’s based on a concept that natural agents may induce lipid class switching,” Yeatman said.

The study opens the door for new avenues for treatment alongside traditional methods, including resolvin therapies, which use natural agents such as frankincense, cannabidiol (CBD) oil, and celastrol to support this metabolic shift, gene targeting to alter pro-inflammatory pathways, and reprogramming the tumor microenvironment to enhance anti-inflammatory responses.

The court will hear oral arguments on Jan. 10, 2025.

TikTok had challenged the divestment law as unconstitutional under the First Amendment, and a three-judge panel in federal court had upheld the law earlier this month.

TikTok then appealed to the high court asking for a pause of the Jan. 19 deadline and asking it to treat its petition as one for review.

The Supreme Court wrote on Dec. 18 that it will hear arguments in the case before deciding whether to pause the deadline.

When President Joe Biden signed the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA) into law, it started a 270-day countdown for ByteDance to divest of TikTok or else stop operating the app in the United States. The law targets apps owned or controlled by foreign adversaries, in this case, the Chinese communist regime.

The law also allows the president to issue a one-time extension of a maximum of 90 days.

President-elect Donald Trump has suggested he can facilitate a sale of TikTok, which would prevent what TikTok calls a “ban.” TikTok is arguing the deadline should be paused so the new administration can make the call.

The Justice Department argued the law did not violate the First Amendment because it targeted ownership by a foreign adversary for national security reasons, and that it did not target content.

The Supreme Court directed parties to argue on “whether the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, as applied to petitioners, violates the First Amendment.”

The parties have a Dec. 27 deadline to file opening briefs, and a Jan. 3, 2025, deadline for reply briefs. Amicus briefs have a Dec. 27 deadline. Oral arguments will last two hours.

This is developing and will be updated.

“We need to start changing behaviors on the other side rather than just having this escalation of their offense and our defense,” Waltz said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday.

Waltz said President-elect Donald Trump as well as his pick for U.S. secretary of state, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), are on the same page in terms of starting to “impose costs on the other side to get them to knock this off.”

U.S. officials and law enforcement have on multiple occasions named the Chinese communist regime as a persistent and top cyber threat to the United States.

Waltz pointed to several high-profile incidents like ransomware attacks and the “Volt Typhoon“ campaign wherein the FBI says Chinese state-backed hackers have gained access to critical infrastructure like energy grids and water systems.

With large-scale campaigns like Volt Typhoon and a similar “Salt Typhoon,” in which Chinese state-backed hackers gained access to American telecoms networks to steal communications from targeted individuals, the hackers still have access.

Waltz said the United States needs not only to shore up defenses but also impose real consequences.

“We need to start going on offense and start imposing higher costs and consequences,” he said.

The private sector has a role to play as well, Waltz said.

“We’ve got a tremendous private sector,” he said. “Our tech industry, they could be doing a lot of good in helping us defend [the United States], but also making our adversaries vulnerable.”

Experts have similarly recommended a stronger cyber response. The Senate held a hearing on Chinese cyber espionage on Dec. 11, during which experts pointed out that the United States has not punished foreign actors for their malicious cyber activity.

Outgoing FBI head Christopher Wray—who sounded the alarm over the Volt Typhoon campaign last year and has since made speeches internationally on the issue and testified before Congress on the Chinese cyber threat—said that while the FBI managed to remove Volt Typhoon malware from critical systems, hackers remain prepositioned to do widespread damage. He also testified that Chinese cyber actors outnumber those of the FBI by 50 to one.

Intelligence officials and private companies have also noted that while the Chinese regime makes use of the entire state apparatus to target the United States, American companies and the government work independently. In some cases, the Chinese state-backed campaigns focus on civilian targets.

Last week, the State Department put up a $10 million reward for information leading to the location of individuals who have participated in malicious cyber activities targeting U.S. critical infrastructure under the direction of a foreign government.

Analysts found that YouTube remains the most widely used social media platform among teenagers, with 90 percent of those surveyed reporting they watch videos on the site, down slightly from 95 percent in 2022.

This was followed by ByteDance’s video-sharing platform, TikTok, used by roughly six in ten teens, as well as Instagram and Snapchat, each used by 55 percent of teens.

Teen use of Meta-owned Facebook and the platform X had fallen steeply within the past decade, the survey found.

A total of 22 percent of teens reported using Facebook, a sharp decline from 71 percent in 2014–15. About 17 percent of teens said they use X, roughly half the share from a decade ago (33 percent) and down from 23 percent in 2022.

Overall, 73 percent of teens said they visit YouTube on a daily basis, making the video-sharing platform the most widely used and visited platform among those surveyed. Among those who use the site on a daily basis, 15 percent described their use as “almost constant.”

For TikTok, 16 percent reported constant daily use while for Snapchat, 13 percent of teens surveyed said they use it constantly.

The research center surveyed U.S. teens aged 13 to 17 between Sept. 18 and Oct. 10.

The findings come as multiple social media platforms are facing lawsuits accusing them of fostering addiction and fueling the mental health crisis among children and teenagers.

A Harvard University study showed social media platforms such as Facebook, Snapchat, and Instagram produce the same neural circuitry that is caused by gambling and recreational drugs.

Florida Considers Under 14 Social Media Ban

Multiple platforms including Meta have denied claims their platforms are contributing to the mental health crisis. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg wrote in an October 2021 statement that the company cares “deeply about issues like safety, well-being, and mental health,” and had employed more people dedicated to fighting harmful content on the platforms than “any other company in our space.”

Some U.S. states have passed laws aimed at restricting access for minors without a parent’s permission.

A full under-14s ban in Florida would require children ages 14 and 15 to have parental or guardian approval to sign up for social media.

The ban is due to go into effect on Jan. 1, 2025, but is being challenged in court on free speech grounds.

In California, a newly-introduced bill could see it become the first state to require mental health warning labels on social media sites informing of the potential risk to children and teens.

The legislation, sponsored by state Attorney General Rob Bonta, is already facing pushback from industry officials who have vowed to fight it under the First Amendment.

Lawmakers in Australia recently passed a bill banning children under the age of 16 from using social networks.

That legislation includes fines of up to AU$49.5 million (US$32.2 million) for companies that fail to take “reasonable steps” to prevent minors under 16 from accessing their platforms.

Children will be able to access YouTube for educational programs, according to the bill.

Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Speaking on “Fox & Friends Weekend“ on Dec. 7, Johnson described the momentum behind Hegseth’s bid as ”moving the right way” and defended his qualifications and character amid ongoing controversy. He emphasized Hegseth’s military background and readiness to lead the Pentagon, despite allegations of past misconduct that have raised questions about the likelihood of Senate confirmation.

“I’m optimistic about it,“ Johnson said. ”I’ve talked to a number of senators personally on the Hill just over the last couple of days and it seems like the momentum’s moving the right way.”

Johnson added: “We’ve all made mistakes in our lives, but we believe in redemption.”

Hegseth, a former Army officer and Fox News host, has faced allegations including sexual misconduct and excessive drinking, although no charges were ever filed. This past week, The New Yorker published additional claims from a whistleblower report and other documents detailing alleged incidents of intoxication at work events, inappropriate conduct toward female staffers, and financial mismanagement during Hegseth’s tenure at Concerned Veterans for America. The allegations have drawn criticism, raising questions about whether Hegseth’s confirmation in the Senate will succeed.

A number of Fox News personalities, interviewees, and other staffers have taken to social media to defend the Fox News host from some of the reported claims.

Key Senate Republicans have signaled cautious support while calling for a thorough vetting process. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, met with Hegseth and emphasized the importance of evaluating his record. “We just need to make sure that he is thoroughly vetted and that he has his opportunity to go in front of the committee, recount his service, and rebut any allegations,” Ernst said.

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who previously expressed reservations, voiced optimism after meeting with Hegseth this week. “I see no reason at this point not to be supportive,” Cramer said, praising Hegseth’s readiness for the job. Similarly, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) called the allegations “disturbing” but stressed that anonymous reports should not dictate decisions.

“If you’re not willing to raise your hand and make the accusation, it doesn’t count,” Graham said.

Trump has maintained unwavering support for Hegseth, dismissing negative coverage as “fake news.” In a Truth Social post on Friday, Trump described Hegseth as a “fantastic, high-energy“ pick for the role of secretary of defense who would lead ”with charisma and skill.” The president-elect praised Hegseth’s military mindset and academic credentials, and called him a “WINNER.”

Despite the show of support, there has been media speculation that Trump’s transition team is considering alternatives, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, should Hegseth’s confirmation falter. Hegseth has dismissed such speculation and framed the scrutiny as a smear campaign aimed at derailing his nomination.

“I’m doing this for the warfighters, not the warmongers,” Hegseth posted on X. “The Left is afraid of disrupters and change agents. They are afraid of [Trump] and me.”

With Republicans holding a narrow 53–47 majority in the Senate starting in January 2025, any defections could derail Hegseth’s nomination. Trump’s potential Cabinet has faced one setback, with former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), the initial nominee for attorney general, withdrawing after concerns were raised by Senate Republicans. Trump’s selection to lead the Drug Enforcement Administration also dropped out of contention.

Senate hearings for Trump’s nominees, including Hegseth, are expected to begin shortly after the president-elect’s inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025.

Officers were transporting Cesar Hernandez to a court appearance at about 10:45 a.m. Monday when he jumped out of the van and escaped from the location about 150 miles north of downtown Los Angeles, the department reported.

Agents from the corrections department’s special services unit and units from North Kern, Kern Valley, and Wasco state prisons responded to the escape.

The California Highway Patrol and Delano and McFarland police departments are helping with the search.

Hernandez, 34, is 5 feet 5 inches and 161 pounds. He has brown eyes and black hair, and was last seen wearing an orange top and orange pants.

The prisoner was sent to the Kern County facility from Los Angeles County on June 27, 2019. He was sentenced to 25 years to life with the possibility of parole for first-degree murder.

The conviction was Hernandez’s second strike, meaning he has a prior serious violent felony conviction.

The department is asking the public to call 911 if they see Hernandez or have knowledge of his whereabouts.

Since 1977, 99 percent of all convicts who have left an adult institution, camp, or community-based program without permission have been caught, according to the department.

Mayor Bill Wells of El Cajon, about 40 miles from the Mexico border in San Diego County, claims the city police face misdemeanor charges in California if they cooperate with federal authorities to deport illegal immigrants.

Although El Cajon is not a sanctuary city, California’s sanctuary law prohibits cooperation with federal immigration officers in most cases.

In a social media post Monday, Wells said his city intends to comply with federal authorities despite the risk, but hopes to get clarification from state Attorney General Rob Bonta before deportations begin.

“No officer should have to choose between doing their duty and jeopardizing their future,” Wells posted. “As mayor of El Cajon, I’m doing everything in my power to protect our officers and stand against these dangerous [state] policies.”

The city’s police chief alerted Wells to the conflict, he said.

“I talked to our chief, who was the one who informed me that the officers themselves were at risk,” Wells told The Epoch Times on Tuesday. “That was a new piece of information for me to have.”

California officers can lose their police certification and job if arrested for a felony or other crime, according to the California Commission on Peace Officer Standards and Training.

Officers can also lose their state pensions if they are convicted of a felony related to their official duties, according to the state’s retirement system.

California lawmakers passed the California Values Act in 2017—also called its Sanctuary State law or Senate Bill 54—that prohibits law enforcement agencies, including school police and security departments, from using resources to investigate, detain, or arrest people for immigration enforcement.

The law bans law enforcement from asking for a person’s immigration status, detaining a person based on an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE) request, arresting someone based on a civil immigration warrant, and participating in any agreements or programs that deputize police as immigration agents.

It also prohibits law enforcement from participating in border patrol activities, including warrantless searches and using federal immigration agents and interpreters.

The state law allows immigration authorities to interview inmates, but prohibits them from having permanent office space in jails.

When California’s law was enacted, the U.S. Department of Justice filed legal action against the state, former Gov. Jerry Brown, and former Attorney General Xavier Becerra, seeking to stop its enforcement.

“These criminal aliens are subject to removal from the United States under federal immigration law, and SB 54 interferes with federal immigration authorities’ ability to carry out their responsibilities under federal law,” the DOJ claimed in March 2018.

The U.S. Supreme Court declined to grant review of the legal challenge in 2020, allowing two lower-court decisions in favor of California’s sanctuary law to stand.

Wells said he plans to participate in the deportation process in a Nov. 20 social media post.

“With all the talk of sanctuary cities and states, let me make this perfectly clear: El Cajon is NOT a sanctuary city. We will do everything in our power to assist the federal government in removing criminals from this country,” he stated in the post last week.

He reiterated his position Tuesday. Wells, who also founded a Mayors for Safe Cities group in 2017, is hoping to meet with Tom Homan, Trump’s former ICE director and nominated border czar for his incoming administration.

“I’m trying to arrange a meeting with myself and Tom Homan and will be asking for the feds to give us some resources to protect ourselves for complying,” Wells said. “It is my intention to find a way to comply with federal law.”

Homan, who does not require a Senate confirmation before starting his new job, would be in charge of the nation’s borders. He has already made public statements about his policy against sanctuary jurisdictions.

Wells is drafting a letter to send to California’s attorney general for clarification of the law and hopes the City Council will approve of it Dec. 11, he said.

While immigration hasn’t crippled the city, Wells said there are “a lot of people on the streets that we don’t know where they came from.” The city’s schools are also extremely impacted, he added.

Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta’s offices did not return requests for comment Tuesday.

Newsom announced Nov. 7 that he was calling for state lawmakers to convene a special session later this year to protect California laws on immigrant protection, as well as on abortion, the climate, and LGBT issues.

The group’s consumer confidence index rose to 111.7 in November, up from 109.6 in October, marking the second consecutive month of improvement, according to the Nov. 26 report.

The present situation index, which gauges consumers’ views of current business and labor market conditions, climbed 4.8 points to 140.9. Meanwhile, the expectations index, which reflects outlooks over the next six months on income, business, and labor conditions, inched up 0.4 points to 92.3, remaining well above the threshold of 80 that is typically associated with recession risks.

“The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months fell further in November and was the lowest since we first asked the question in July 2022,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in a statement.

Peterson said that November’s increase in overall consumer confidence was mostly due to more positive assessments of current conditions, particularly with respect to the labor market.

“Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years,” Peterson said.

Even though consumers’ assessments of their family’s current financial situation fell slightly, optimism for their finances over the next six months reached a new high. Confidence in the U.S. stock market also reached a record high, with 56.4 percent of respondents expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months.

Inflation expectations also fell sharply. The average 12-month inflation expectations fell from 5.3 percent in October to 4.9 percent in November, the lowest in nearly four-and-a-half years. Still, elevated prices remained the top concern for consumers, followed by worries about higher taxes, social unrest, as well as conflicts and wars.

“In a special question about concerns and hopes for 2025, consumers overwhelmingly selected higher prices as their top concern and lower prices as their top wish for the new year,” the report states.

Despite the rise in optimism, consumers reported mixed plans for future purchases. Buying intentions for homes stalling in November, while plans to purchase autos ticked up. Durable goods purchases faced uncertainty, with declines in plans for appliances and electronics, offset by steady interest in travel and healthcare spending.

Other data released on Tuesday suggests Americans are tightening their purse strings. Best Buy, the nation’s biggest consumer electronics chain, reported another quarterly sales drop as customers pivoted toward essentials, away from gadgets and appliances. The retailer also lowered its annual sales and profit outlook, with CEO Corie Barry noting weak customer demand ahead of the November election and shoppers who were waiting for bargains.

“We continue to see a consumer who is seeking value and sales events, and one who is also willing to spend on high price-point products when they need to or when there is new, compelling technology,“ Barry said in a statement. ”Thus, we are balancing our optimism in both the industry and our unique positioning with a pragmatic approach to likely uneven customer behavior going forward.”

Similarly, Kohl’s reported disappointing third-quarter results and lowered its full-year sales outlook. The retailer now expects comparable sales to decline 6 percent to 7 percent for the year, a deeper slump than the 3 percent to 5 percent it previously projected.

“Our third quarter results did not meet our expectations as sales remained soft in our apparel and footwear businesses,“ CEO Tom Kingsbury said in a statement. ”We are approaching our financial outlook for the year more conservatively given the third quarter underperformance and our expectation for a highly competitive holiday season.”

Target also reported weak sales and slumping profits as customers pulled back on non-essential purchases. CEO Brian Cornell said the company “encountered some unique challenges and cost pressures that impacted our bottom-line performance” in the third quarter, although he expressed confidence in Target’s business fundamentals and its ability to deliver on longer-term financial goals.

The picture wasn’t universally grim among the nation’s retailers during this reporting season, however. Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, last week reported a solid third quarter and raised its full-year net sales growth guidance to between 4.8 and 5.1 percent.

“We had a strong quarter, continuing our momentum,” CEO Doug McMillon said in a statement. “In-store volumes grow, pickup from store grew faster, and delivery from store grew even faster than that.”

Alongside the rise in consumer confidence, as reported by The Conference Board, there was also an uptick in sentiment among professional economic forecasters this week. The latest National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey showed that economists have raised their growth projections substantially for 2025 and most of them no longer see downside risks as predominant.
NABE’s periodic survey, released on Nov. 25 and based on the responses of 38 professional forecasters, found improved economic growth projections for both this year and the next, while expecting inflation to cool further.

At that meeting, FOMC members overwhelmingly voted to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to a new range of 4.5–4.75 percent, signaling further loosening of restrictive monetary policy.

The meeting summary indicated that officials are confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward the institution’s objective of 2 percent. The Fed could rapidly ease policy if there were sudden weakness in the labor market or the broader economy, the document said.

“In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time,” the minutes stated.

Meeting participants did express uncertainty regarding how low interest rates need to be before touching the neutral rate that neither stimulates economic activity nor halts growth.

“Many participants observed that uncertainties concerning the level of the neutral rate of interest complicated the assessment of the degree of restrictiveness of monetary policy and, in their view, made it appropriate to reduce policy restraint gradually,” the minutes said.

Looking ahead, Fed policymakers said that incoming data are consistent with the central bank’s 2 percent inflation target. They noted that higher shelter costs bolstered recent higher readings.

“Participants cited various factors likely to put continuing downward pressure on inflation, including waning business pricing power, the committee’s still-restrictive monetary policy stance, and well-anchored longer-term inflation expectations,” it added.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters at the post-meeting press conference earlier this month that the road to 2 percent inflation may be “bumpy” with more bumps in the road.

As for the U.S. economic landscape, participants concluded that downside risks to the labor market and wider economy decreased.

In addition, staff projected that economic conditions would remain solid and growth projections would be higher than in the previous assessment.

Tim Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, recently expressed caution over the labor market but was optimistic about inflation.

“The labor market might be fine, or it might continue to weaken,” Barkin said in prepared remarks to the Baltimore Together Summit on Nov. 12.

“Inflation might be coming under control, or the level of core might give a signal that it risks getting stuck above target.”

Market Reaction

Financial markets registered tepid gains toward the closing bell on Nov. 26, with the leading benchmark indexes up by as much as 0.4 percent.

Yields in the U.S. Treasury market attempted to reverse the previous session’s sharp decline. The benchmark 10-year yield topped 4.3 percent. The two-year yield was flat at 2.5 percent, while the 30-year bond surged to 4.48 percent.

The greenback extended its gains. The U.S. dollar index, a gauge of the greenback against a basket of currencies, recorded a modest increase and added to its year-to-date rally of 5.6 percent.

Policy minutes did little to change the market’s assessment of next month’s outcome.

“The minutes did nothing to alter my view that the policy rate is going to be adjusted lower next week and will continue to do so through the next calendar year,” Jamie Cox, managing partner for the Harris Financial Group, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors are mostly penciling in a quarter-point rate cut.

The rate-cutting cycle will persist throughout 2025, though Fed easing might not be as aggressive, says Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial.

“In our view, after weeks of markets pricing in too many rate cuts throughout 2025, Fed rate cut pricing is now better aligned with economic data,” Roach said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times. “Currently, markets still expect the Fed to cut rates below 4 percent by the end of 2025.”

The FOMC will hold its next two-day policy meeting on Dec. 16–17.