“Our mortgage strategy team’s expectations rates will hold in the low-to-mid 6% range” next year, said analysts Susan Maklari and Charles Perron-Piche, adding, “This will keep existing home sales 24% below the 2015-19 average.”

They offered clients the understanding that there would be no meaningful relief for prospective buyers as the affordability crisis will linger through next year:

“Despite our macro team predicting another 125bps of Fed rate cuts through September 2025, our credit strategy team forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will end 2025 at 6.3%, down just 30bps from 6.6% anticipated at the end of this year and only 39bps below current levels.”

Given the latest inflation data, a largely in-line CPI report followed by a ‘red hot‘ PPI print in November, this data suggests that longer-term yields are to stay higher over the medium- to longer-term, according to Bloomberg’s Simon White.

In other words, White suggests that this inflation data squashes the dovish party. As of late Thursday, the market is pricing in only two rate cuts for next year.

Goldman analysts noted that without interest rate relief and the general leanness of housing inventory, home prices are forecasted to increase by 3% YoY.

“Said differently, we estimate the mortgage payment on a median-priced single-family home is 35% of the median household income. Although this is down from 39% a year ago, it remains well above the 30% threshold for most lenders,” they explained.

The analysts then provided clients with a state affordability tracker for the last month.

Impact of Changing Rates and Home Prices on Monthly Mortgage Payments as a % of Income

“The affordability headwinds will be most pronounced on resales, with existing home transactions holding at 4.1mn in 2025 vs the 2015-19 average of 5.4mn. This reflects the lock-in effect, which we believe will remain a headwind for the next several years,” the analysts said, adding, “Homeowners would be reluctant to move even if rates declined to the high-5% range.”

Goldman has delivered some grim news for prospective homebuyers sitting on the sidelines: the affordability crisis is nowhere near being resolved.

It had been closed since the dramatic events of HTS-led forces entering the capital, and Assad and his top officials fleeing the country. The airport’s director Anis Fallouh said it will reopen “in the next few days” – according to the AFP.

“God willing, the airport will reopen as quickly as possible because we are going to work flat out,” Fallouh said. “We can quickly resume flights through Syrian airspace.”

For now, however, it seems unrealistic that any flights will land or take off from the airport given that Israeli warplanes have been bombing the country non-stop for at least 72 hours. This has included the targeting of at least 350 Syrian Army sites, as well as facilities for the production of chemical weapons.

With Israeli warplanes roaming the skies, commercial flight travel over Syria remains highly dangerous. There’s also the fact that the various al-Qaeda factions now in control of Syria have gained access to at least some of Syria’s remnant anti-aircraft missile arsenal, such as MANPADS.

There have also long-been NATO-supplied shoulder-fired missiles all around Syria, supplied to the ‘rebels’. Below appears to be evidence of this…

WATCH

Uyghur Rebels in Syria Threaten China with Assad-Era Missiles

Uyghur rebels in Syria have discovered BM-21 Grad long-range missiles left behind by Bashar al-Assad’s regime. They issued a warning to the Chinese government, declaring their intent to use these weapons… pic.twitter.com/od2Yk0AxLD

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) December 10, 2024

Only Cham Wings, a private Syrian airline and Syrian Air, the country’s national airline, had been continuing to operate up to the dramatic events of the last ten days.

But Al Jazeera has noted of the status of these defunct airlines, “Aircraft maintenance official Samer Radi said there were currently 12 aircraft on the ground, one of which had been stripped of its equipment by looters during the takeover by opposition forces.”

It’s unclear whether these carriers will be reestablished, or a timeline for potential operations. At this moment the country and population are also starved of fuel, after days ago an Iranian tanker en route to Syria turned around as it became clear the Assad government was in collapse.

Before the war, British Airways and Emirates had frequent flights to and from Damascus. But immense hurdles remain in what is still basically a war zone and questions over the fact that a US-designated terror organization is now running the show in Damascus.

The HTS jihadists who seized control of Aleppo International #Airport have reportedly destroyed all whiskey and alcohol bottles in its duty-free zone. It seems that the enforcement of Sharia law has already begun in #Aleppo. pic.twitter.com/81lxrz0b1O

— Greco-Levantines World Wide (@GrecoLevantines) December 2, 2024

“So far, the operations of Syrian Air have been extremely restricted,” explained one industry analyst. “Everybody would want to reopen flights into Damascus, which obviously is a significant destination for the Gulf.”

“Airlines will have to individually go and do a damage assessment, a liability assessment and a review of what’s happened, what’s workable, what’s permissible, as well as what’s functioning and what is not,” the analyst continued.

ERIC TRUMP: I’ve been in crypto for a long time and so is my father, and I think he realizes that every country in the world is embracing it. People are running—look at where we are right now in Abu Dhabi. They’re putting billions of dollars into crypto, into digital technologies. If we don’t do it as America, we’re going to be left behind. He wants to make America the crypto capital of the world. He’s been very, very clear with that, and I applaud that.

Listen, right now, if you live in America and want to get a home loan, it takes you 90 days. How the hell does it take 90 days to get a home loan? By then, the house is already sold. Your dream is gone. There’s zero chance you’re getting it. There is nothing on blockchain that can’t be done better, faster, and substantially cheaper—not pushing paper. The banking system we have around the world, the modern banking system, is antiquated. It’s antiquated, and it’s just a matter of time before crypto not only catches up but really leaps ahead.

We’re incredibly excited on a lot of fronts, and I think America will be the crypto capital of the world. I fully support it, my father fully supports it, and our family fully embraces it. We believe in DeFi.  We believe that’s the way of the future. America better lead the way; otherwise, we’re going to leave a lot behind.

DAN MURPHY: All of this also comes back to regulation as well, and one thing your father has spoken about is incorporating new legislation, even deregulation, in the crypto space to really accelerate and move this forward. What does that look like?

ERIC TRUMP: It’s transparent, that’s what it is. The people in the crypto industry are frustrated that no one’s ever put together a sensible plan as to how to regulate an industry. They’re fine with regulation, but they just want guidelines, and they’ve said that. The problem is, you see so many companies have been so unfairly treated—so many lawsuits, hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars, people attacked, companies attacked—and they’re just saying, “Just give us the rules of the road, and we’ll obey them.”

And by the way, if you give us the rules of the road, chances are the rest of the world will follow. So I think sensible regulation makes a lot of sense. A lot of people think the crypto industry doesn’t want regulation, but that’s actually not true. They just want sensible regulation—regulation that they can follow, regulation that’s crystal clear, that’s black and white.

They don’t want to see people like Gensler, who was absolutely a disaster for crypto. He did everything he could to try and stifle innovation. He would do so, and those people have all been cleared out. I think they will put together good regulation. I think we will have a clear roadmap, and hopefully, the rest of the world follows that. Hopefully, we can lead by example because that’s what we should do as Americans. Hopefully, we truly are the crypto superpower of the world.

This massive flow of humanity crosses multiple national borders, involves every mode of transportation, accounts for billions of dollars paid in fees to smugglers, and describes a fantastically complex economy of suffering and hope. In an effort to get a handle on this human tide, noted muckraker James O’Keefe – known for his hidden camera “gotcha” interviews with abortionists, media executives, progressive nonprofit executives, and other degenerate types – traces the migrant onrush from its source, and seeks to trace the machinery of profit and influence that is conducting it from great removes.

“Line In The Sand,” the resulting documentary, is a remarkable and humane exposition, revealing perspectives and images American audiences have mostly been prevented from seeing. O’Keefe and his intrepid team begin on the U.S. side of the Mexican border, where we witness migrants crossing the border through holes that their guides have cut in a fence that serves as a target as much as a barrier. Infrared cameras show dozens of illegal aliens streaming toward “pick-up” vehicles on the U.S. side while smugglers – presumably cartel members – a few feet away taunt O’Keefe and his group. “What if I were to run up to them right now, what would happen?” O’Keefe asks his guide. “I would highly advise you against that,” he is told, in a classic understatement.

The fact that coyotes and other human traffickers are paid to assist northbound migrants with their passage is no scandal; we all know what their motivations are and why they are doing what they do. But O’Keefe documents multiple examples of U.S. Border Patrol agents standing idly by while illegal aliens cross, virtually under their noses. “Why aren’t you doing anything?” he asks. “Have a good day, guys,” a border agent desultorily responds before driving off in the general direction of the episode. Later, a migrant stands in front of a Border Patrol truck, clearly trying to alert the agents of his intention to surrender, but is studiously ignored until O’Keefe and his team call their attention to him.

There is a kind of sad comedy in the operations of U.S. border security, and O’Keefe is not unsympathetic to the absurd position that border agents have been put in. Trained to defend the national border and to serve as the first line of defense of American soil, these agents have been recommissioned as a perverse Welcome Wagon for illegal aliens, charged with making their undocumented and uninvited entrance to the United States as commodious as possible.

Looking to get deeper into the heart of this migratory avalanche, O’Keefe went deep into Mexico, to the city of Irapuato, about 150 miles northwest of Mexico City. Irapuato is a popular railway junction where thousands of migrants climb aboard “La Bestia,” or “The Beast,” a cargo train that chugs northward toward the United States. In the film’s most remarkable footage, O’Keefe and his team join with migrants, mostly from South and Central America, to ride The Beast, also known as “el Tren del Muerto,” or the Train of Death. O’Keefe talks to the migrants without condescension, asking them their destinations and what they plan to do when they get there, and their concerns about the perilous nature of the journey. We see the film crew race to jump on a moving train and clamber on top to sit in a pile of coal; O’Keefe is shocked at how truly dangerous this small element of the trip is and sympathizes with the migrants’ difficult choices. These scenes are among the film’s most affecting, along with the crew’s random encounter with a little girl who had just crossed the border after journeying from Guatemala by herself. There is a human dimension to illegal immigration, and O’Keefe does not ignore it.

However, there is also an impersonal dimension to this massive population transfer, and O’Keefe determinedly aims to uncover it – to put a face to the institutions and administrators that benefit from the rough injection of millions of people into American society. From government agents to bus companies to nonprofit resettlement groups to private contractors running huge, walled compounds housing thousands of children, O’Keefe doggedly tries to penetrate the mechanics of a system that resolutely hides itself behind a screen of silence, usually in the name of “safety” and “privacy.”

Some of the film’s more comical moments pertain to these segments, such as when the team follows some just-arrived Chinese migrants in San Diego to an employment agency, where other Chinese aliens, already in the country for several months, complain that it’s much harder to live in the United States than they had imagined. O’Keefe tries to sniff out a connection between the owner of the agency and more powerful actors, but it emerges that there really isn’t much going on; in fact, the owner asks O’Keefe if he knows of a way to apply for government grants.

Elsewhere, O’Keefe tries to get information about the operations of several huge residential centers for unaccompanied minors and tries to spin their refusal to give him access to the centers or submit to interviews as evidence of the existence of vast, government-funded child sex trafficking networks. But it seems more likely, though no less troubling, that the open borders policy of the last four years has created a tremendous humanitarian crisis of alien children roaming the continent by themselves, and the government is probably trying to keep them from becoming prey to sex traffickers while they sort out where to send them. Though O’Keefe does not uncover a salacious network of child predators, his vigorous pursuit of the truth does reveal the existence of a large, shadowy, government-funded, and lucrative system of child “welfare.”

So, “Line In The Sand” is correct in the larger sense that billions of dollars are being spent managing this human flow, and many people are getting rich off of it. The last thing these parasitical administrators of the nonprofit industrial complex want is for the border to close. O’Keefe does a great job of capturing in real time the corruption of a local New York City nonprofit called La Jornada, whose leader, Pedro Rodriguez, evidently perpetrates fraud, demanding fees for services that the city provides for free. O’Keefe also sends a Spanish-speaking reporter undercover into the Roosevelt Hotel, New York City’s main processing center for newly-arrived migrants, which offers him free housing, medical care, and even airplane tickets, even though the reporter explains that he has no identification of any sort. How, O’Keefe asks, in our post 9/11 security-obsessed era, are we to make sense of a system that admits millions of unvetted foreigners into the country, and then offers to fly them anywhere they care to go?

“Line In The Sand” is rough in parts, but intentionally so. Its subject is so sprawling and tangled that a neat and clean representation would be a lie. Even with a nine-figure budget – which this film assuredly did not have – a documentary about the border and the 30 million-footed human swarm that has crossed it would be messy and incomplete. But James O’Keefe and his small team have done something remarkable. They have taken on the decade’s biggest story, given it form, and preserved the humanity of its subjects. It is worth watching.

Seth Barron is a writer in New York and author of the forthcoming “Weaponized from Humanix.”

“On Saturday, December 14, we’re hosting a gun buyback event in Bohemia at the True North Community Church from 10AM-1PM,” James’ post read, adding, “No ID is needed, and no questions will be asked.”

However, in small italicized font, James’ office wrote:

“Anyone bringing homemade or 3D-printed guns will be paid a total of $25, regardless of how many are turned in.” 

On Saturday, December 14, we're hosting a gun buyback event in Bohemia at the True North Community Church from 10AM-1PM. 
 
No ID is needed, and no questions will be asked. pic.twitter.com/PjFGsPD9XV

— NY AG James (@NewYorkStateAG) December 8, 2024

The reason: In 2022, New York’s attorney general had to revise the rules surrounding gun buybacks after an unidentified man from West Virginia exploited a loophole at an event in Utica, New York.

The man reportedly earned $21,000 in gift cards after turning in 60 printed auto sears, which likely cost him $50 in plastic filament. That’s a heck of a return.

“Are you guys going to get scammed by the ppl bringing in those cheap 3d printed guns? It was like an unlimited money glitch for them,” one X user asked James.

Someone found another “unlimited money glitch” …

They have a disclaimer that you can only get $25 for 3D printed guns, and only $25 per person.

Now the glitch is to buy $350 AR's or cheap used pistols. pic.twitter.com/ZEMaBmpTY6

— Elliott (Elijah) Hope (@RealElliottHope) December 8, 2024

The 3D printer community has woken up to “unlimited money glitch” over the years:

Man exchanges 62 3D printed guns that cost $186 to print for $3100 in gift cards.

When asked why he scammed the system, he said
"Pay fair prices [at gun buyback events], use private donations rather than tax dollars, and don’t destroy historic guns." 1/2 pic.twitter.com/SdDiqa9McH

— Jo Jorgensen (@JoForLiberty) August 2, 2022

Turns out printed guns are just free money at buybacks.

Someone maxed out what they could collect in a South Carolina buyback yesterday and took in 750$ for between 25-50$ worth of Harlots. pic.twitter.com/5wkrfLtVFl

— chairmanwon (@chairmanwon) August 3, 2022

Someone turned in 62 3D printed "ghost guns" for $150/ea at a recent Houston "gun buy back" event

This is the way

$9300 will get you a lot of nice real guns pic.twitter.com/Ki00OsGRJM

— Mrgunsngear (@Mrgunsngear) July 31, 2022

James’ office appears to have learned from past mistakes.

People who make the most money are builders. Creating something new out of nothing, zero-to-one, is the hardest thing there is to do. So, society rewards those who do it best. There are all sorts of builders of course. And the most highly compensated are those who build things that no one has ever dreamt of, or perhaps not ever thought possible. Things which the builder had to imagine would someday be in high demand if only it could be brought to market. Henry Ford dreamt of a Model T. Steve Jobs imagined an iPhone. Musk aspires to Mars.

Investors make less than builders because investing is easier, and moving money provides less value to society. There are all sorts of investors. Naturally, the highest paid are builders of investment firms. Griffin. Schwartzman. Dalio. Buffet’s extreme wealth is an outlier, but he’s been building Berkshire since 1965, compounding longer than any living entrepreneur. Investors generally make money like builders do. Some invest in outcomes no one thought possible. Most buy things they imagine will soon be in high demand.

The West confiscated $300bln of Russian assets in the days following its Feb 2022 Ukraine invasion. It didn’t take a wild imagination to picture a world where every sovereign nation that had stored its national wealth in assets controlled by western nations would seek an alternative. Gold seemed a good bet. But Powell started his historic rate hike cycle in March of 2022, which pushed the gold price down 20% – investing may be easier than building, but that doesn’t mean it’s easy. Buyers prevailed in time, and gold is now 25% higher than pre-invasion.

Investors could have bought Bitcoin instead of gold. Its price fell from $40k pre-invasion to $16k at the FTX lows and now trades $100k. Someone is clearly buying. And like many reflexive bull markets, higher prices create more positives. Bitcoin has quite clearly come to be recognized as an alternative to gold and has deepened what is now the most secure network ever built by humans. Ethereum performance has improved by orders of magnitude, growing faster, cheaper, more secure, versatile. Through the vicious cycle, crypto builders kept building.

The election marked a shift in US policy away from outward hostility toward the crypto industry. It took little imagination to picture a world where countless uninvested individuals and institutions would finally recognize the asset class and include it in their portfolios. Markets repriced accordingly. But it is also not so hard to imagine other profoundly different futures which as recently as five weeks ago most investors barely considered. This new future will unfold with these technologies now able to really scale. And this curve will steepen.

Every major global financial institution must now recognize that its entire trading, settlement, custody and risk infrastructure will likely shift to blockchain rails in the decade to come. Every bank, broker, custodian, exchange, asset manager, and payments provider must imagine a future where its business will be rebuilt on a new platform. They’ll either do it themselves, find an infrastructure partner, or lose to a competitor. It’s not hard to imagine a world where demand for crypto builders and infrastructure providers/partners will be extraordinary.

As Tom Ozimek reports, via The Epoch Times, the fiscal year 2024 report, released on Dec. 5, outlines a year of intensified enforcement for the IRS-CI, which serves as the tax agency’s law enforcement branch that focuses on tax violations that cross into criminal territory.

The report shows that the division achieved several firsts over the past year, including the first sentencing for syndicated conservation easement schemes, the first cryptocurrency tax fraud indictment, and a record-setting financial settlement with Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, for anti-money laundering violations.

IRS-CI special agents, who are authorized to carry guns and use lethal force, now number 2,290 after a hiring spree added 146 employees to its ranks over the fiscal year. The division’s overall workforce expansion is the largest in nearly a decade, bringing total headcount to 3,474 employees. Between 2010 and 2020, the division’s staffing numbers fell from 4,017 to 2,858.

IRS-CI Chief Guy Ficco said in the report that the demands on the division’s workforce have increased as “criminals utilize new venues, revise their techniques, and use emerging technologies to facilitate financial crimes.”

A turnaround in hiring in recent years across both the criminal investigations unit and the IRS more broadly has been fueled by the $80 billion funding boost under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, around $20 billion of which was later clawed back. Roughly $46 billion of the funding boost was designated for enforcement, a contentious part of the package that drew opposition from some Republican lawmakers, who argued it could lead to increased tax audits on lower- and middle-income Americans.

According to the fiscal year 2024 report, the IRS-CI launched 2,667 criminal investigations, leading to 1,571 convictions. The division raised its conviction rate from 88.4 percent in the 2023 fiscal year to 90 percent in 2024, which ended Sept. 30.

The division also uncovered $9.1 billion in fraud from tax and financial crimes, obtained $1.7 billion in court-ordered restitution, and seized approximately $1.2 billion in criminal assets.

The IRS-CI also expanded its international footprint by launching a new attaché post in Nassau, Bahamas, and a cyber attaché post in Singapore.

Ficco said in the report that the division’s focus heading into 2025 is to leverage its expanded resources and expertise to pursue financial crimes and protect the integrity of the U.S. tax system.

Most of the tit-for-tat actions over the past couple years have focused on mutual accusations of spying. Currently, Poland is threatening to shutter all Russian consulates on Polish soil over espionage and ‘terrorism’.

On Thursday Russia ordered the closure if the Polish consulate in St. Petersburg and told its diplomats to immediately leave the country, in the latest escalation.

“Three diplomatic staff members of the Consulate General of the Republic of Poland in St. Petersburg have been declared persona non grata,” the Russian Foreign Ministry announced.

This move is being described as in retaliation for the prior closure of a Russian consulate in the Polish city of Poznan in the western part of the NATO country. The Kremlin has further cited Poland’s “openly hostile policy” toward Moscow as a reason behind the move.

Poland and EU states have accused Moscow of “intimidation, the instrumentalization of migrants, sabotage, disinformation, foreign information manipulation and interference.”

As for a potential new response from the Polish government, a statement has warned:

“If acts of diversion and terrorism continue, I will close down the rest of the Russian consulate presence in Poland,” Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told reporters after Moscow announced the closure of its St. Petersburg consulate.

On the military front, some Polish top officials have recently argued that the country’s military should be actively intercepting Russian missiles threatening Ukrainian territory, especially ones that fly close to Poland’s border in the region of Western Ukraine.

Poland has generally been among the most hawkish Western allies when it comes to escalating support to Kiev forces in Ukraine.

Poland’s ambassador to the UN Krzysztof Szczerski has compared Russia’s abductions of Ukrainian children to the “worst crimes” of WWII https://t.co/DCAGlDB1Wr

— Radio Poland (@thenews_PL) December 5, 2024

Warsaw has throughout the conflict played host to a build-up of Western weapons along NATO’s ‘eastern flank’ – and Moscow has especially been alarmed that US missiles have been placed in northern Poland in the Baltic Sea region.

The retail giant could file for bankruptcy as soon as next year, according to the New York Post, who said the retailer is blaming its recent descent on “a weak housing market and inflated prices” hurting sales.

The chain, based in Coppell, Texas, saw a pandemic-driven surge in 2020 and 2021 as homebound consumers, inspired by Marie Kondo’s Netflix show, embraced decluttering.

However, a sluggish housing market and persistent inflation have curbed moves, home renovations, and discretionary spending, shrinking demand for storage products. Or, in other words, people simply have less money for crap nowadays.

The Post reported that the Container Store faces a “high probability” of bankruptcy next year, according to Tim Hynes, global head of credit research at Debtwire, following the path of retailers like Big Lots and LL Flooring.

Amid a record wave of store closures predicted this year by Coresight Research, The Container Store has shown signs of distress. In May, it suspended its earnings outlook and began a strategic review to address declining performance. In its latest quarter ending September 28, sales dropped 10.5%, with losses totaling $30.8 million.

A potential $40 million lifeline from Beyond, owner of Bed Bath & Beyond and Overstock.com, to stock Bed Bath & Beyond products appears in jeopardy. Last week, Bed Bath & Beyond hinted the deal might collapse, citing The Container Store’s inability to meet financing conditions.

Hynes said: “I don’t see any dramatic increase in holiday sales that will change the situation. They are already pretty far down the line.”

Incidentally, this also means a lot of bored housewives could be looking for new ‘projects’ heading into the New Year, so stay out of their way…

As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, the topic has been reignited by the release of a new book titled The Anxious Generation, by New York University social psychologist Jonathan Haidt, who links the rise in mental health illness directly to the proliferation of social networks and smartphones.

While Haidt writes that social media and smartphones are not the only causes of the mental health epidemic seen in several countries, he points to how such technologies are hindering children’s healthy development by reducing their time spent playing with friends in real life, eating into time for sleeping, as well as corroding their self esteem. Even children who do not use social media are struggling, he argues, due to the changes brought about to social life. Critics say, however, that correlation is not the same as causation and that the data does not show a complete picture.

As the following chart shows, the share of U.S. 12-17 year olds having experienced a depressive episode in the past year has risen from 7.9 percent in 2006 to 18.1 percent in 2023.

While the figure has come down from the pandemic high of 20.1 percent in 2021, it is still above that of 2019 and 2020.

This is according to data from the U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. The source classifies a major depressive episode in the past 12 months if a respondent has had at least one period of two weeks or longer when they felt depressed or lost interest or pleasure in daily activities for most of the day nearly every day. Depressive symptoms include problems with sleeping, eating, energy, concentration, self-worth, or having recurrent thoughts of death or recurrent suicidal ideation.

The share of teens who had reported a major depressive episode was particularly high among Multiracial (24.4 percent) respondents in 2023, followed by white adolescents (19.6), Asian (13.7 percent) and Black teens (13.3 percent).

There was insufficient data for calculating the Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander teenagers.